Preliminary investigation of a significant national Cryptosporidium exceedance in the United Kingdom, August 2023 and ongoing.

Routine laboratory surveillance has identified an unprecedented and ongoing exceedance of Cryptosporidium spp. across the United Kingdom, notably driven by C. hominis transmission, since 14 August 2023. Information from 477 reported cases in England and Wales, followed up with a standardised exposure questionnaire as of 25 September 2023, identified foreign travel in 250 (54%) of 463 respondents and swimming in 234 (66%) of 353 cases. A significant, common exposure has not yet been identified in first analyses.

Under or over? General practitioner charging of Medicare.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In 2022, media reports alleged that doctors, particularly general practitioners (GPs), are defrauding Medicare, claiming $8 billion lost through fraud/non-compliance. This study examined Medicare Benefits Schedule billing patterns by consultation length to estimate overcharging or undercharging by GPs, and the cost/savings to Medicare. METHOD: A subset of data from the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program from 2013 to 2016, which included length of consultation information, was analysed. RESULTS: Of 89,765 consultations, GPs undercharged 11.8% of consultations and overcharged 1.6%. Of the 2760 GPs sampled, 816 (29.6%) overcharged at least once and 2334 (84.6%) undercharged at least once. Of the GPs who overcharged at least once, 85.4% also undercharged. The total effect of GP undercharging and overcharging was a net saving of $351.7 million to Medicare. DISCUSSION: This study shows that GPs undercharging and overcharging saved Medicare over one-third of a billion dollars in 2021-22. The findings of this study do not support the media claims of widespread fraud by GPs.

General Practice Statistics in Australia: Pushing a Round Peg into a Square Hole.

In Australia, general practice forms a core part of the health system, with general practitioners (GPs) having a gatekeeper role for patients to receive care from other health services. GPs manage the care of patients across their lifespan and have roles in preventive health care, chronic condition management, multimorbidity and population health. Most people in Australia see a GP once in any given year. Draft reforms have been released by the Australian Government that may change the model of general practice currently implemented in Australia. In order to quantify the impact and effectiveness of any implemented reforms in the future, reliable and valid data about general practice clinical activity over time, will be needed. In this context, this commentary outlines the historical and current approaches used to obtain general practice statistics in Australia and highlights the benefits and limitations of these approaches. The role of data generated from GP electronic health record extractions is discussed. A methodology to generate high quality statistics from Australian general practice in the future is presented.

Characteristic-specific rates of rheumatoid arthritis and its management in Australian general practice.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A 2006-16 study investigated rheumatoid arthritis (RA) management by Australian general practitioners (GPs). The aim of this study was to examine: GP-patient encounters for RA management over the decade, treatments provided for RA management (new and continuing), characteristics of patients managed and of GPs providing management, and differences across regional areas and areas of socioeconomic advantage/disadvantage, compared with Australian guidelines. METHOD: GP self-reported data collected through the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program were analysed for patient and GP characteristics and management actions (medications, referrals, investigations, procedures) nationally, regionally and by socioeconomic advantage/disadvantage levels. RESULTS: Proportions of RA management encounters: remained static across the decade, were higher for female patients, increased with patient and GP age, increased with socioeconomic disadvantage in major cities, were higher for patients from English-speaking backgrounds, and were higher in regional/remote areas. DISCUSSION: GP behaviour indicates equity and uniformity in RA management nationally. The results suggest adherence to current guidelines for total and new RA contacts.

Adequacy of Australia's GP workforce: estimating supply and demand, 2005-06 to 2015-16.

Objective A 2011 Australian study calculated average annual general practitioner (GP) utilisation and predicted numbers required to meet demand to 2020. The objective of the present study is to calculate average annual GP utilisation in 2015-16 compared with clinical demand predicted in 2005-06. Methods Demand was calculated from Medicare Benefits Schedule, Department of Veterans' Affairs and Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Length of consultation and average clinical hours worked per week (from 2002-03 to 2015-16) was drawn from GP self-reported data collected through the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program. GP workforce numbers were sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 'Medical practitioners workforce 2015' report. Results Predicted demand from 2005-06 to 2009-10 approximated GP supply. Beyond 2011, approximately 2674 additional GPs were required in 2015-16 to maintain the average annual 2005-06 GP workload. An additional 5941 GPs were required to meet the increase in clinical demand (for GP services to patients) from 2005-06 to 2015-16. Conclusions The number of GP clinical hours worked decreased, and clinical demand increased. Ongoing efforts are required to ensure the supply of GPs to meet the clinical demand of Australia's aging population. What is known about this topic? For the past three decades there has been concern about the supply of GPs in Australia. In recent years the Australian Government has taken several steps to improve access to GP services by increasing the overall supply of GPs and encouraging a more even distribution of GPs across Australia. A 2011 Australian study calculated average annual GP service utilisation and predicted the number of GPs required to meet clinical demand to 2020. There are current concerns that the GP workforce has reached a state of oversupply. What does this paper add? This study concludes that the GP workforce is not in a state of oversupply, confirming that patient clinical demand increased through both population growth and the aging of the population. Although the number of GPs increased, the number of clinical hours worked by (male) GPs decreased. Therefore, the rise in the number of GPs did not result in a proportional rise in GP workforce capacity. Clearly standardised definitions and inclusions for counting the GP workforce would improve accuracy in measuring this section of the health workforce. What are the implications for practitioners? GP workforce supply will require ongoing monitoring over coming years considering the increasing population, the aging of the population, declining clinical GP working hours and the approaching mass retirement of older GPs.

Predicting patient use of general practice services in Australia: models developed using national cross-sectional survey data.

BACKGROUND: The ageing population and increasing prevalence of multimorbidity place greater resource demands on the health systems internationally. Accurate prediction of general practice (GP) services is important for health workforce planning. The aim of this research was to develop a parsimonious model that predicts patient visit rates to general practice. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2016, 1449 randomly selected Australian GPs recorded GP-patient encounter details for 43,501 patients in sub-studies of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH) program. Details included patient characteristics, all diagnosed chronic conditions per patient and the number of GP visits for each patient in previous 12 months. BEACH has a single stage cluster design. Survey procedures in SAS version 9.3 (SAS Inc., Cary, NC, USA) were used to account for the effect of this clustering. Models predicting patient GP visit rates were tested. R-square value was used to measure how well each model predicts GP attendance. An adjusted R-square was calculated for all models with more than one explanatory variable. Statistically insignificant variables were removed through backwards elimination. Due to the large sample size, p < 0.01 rather than p < 0.05 was used as level of significance. RESULTS: Number of diagnosed chronic conditions alone accounted for 25.48% of variance (R-square) in number of visits in previous year. The final parsimonious model accounted for 27.58% of variance and estimated that each year: female patients had 0.52 more visits; Commonwealth Concessional Health Care Card holders had 1.06 more visits; for each chronic condition patients made 1.06 more visits; and visit rate initially decreased with age before increasing exponentially. CONCLUSIONS: Number of diagnosed chronic conditions was the best individual predictor of the number of GP visits. Adding patient age, sex and concession card status explained significantly more variance. This model will assist health care planning by providing an accurate prediction of patient use of GP services.

Validation of electronic medical data: Identifying diabetes prevalence in general practice.

BACKGROUND:: Electronic medical records are increasingly used for research with limited external validation of their data. OBJECTIVE:: This study investigates the validity of electronic medical data (EMD) for estimating diabetes prevalence in general practitioner (GP) patients by comparing EMD with national Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH) data. METHOD:: A "decision tree" was created using inclusion/exclusion of pre-agreed variables to determine the probability of diabetes in absence of diagnostic label, including diagnoses (coded/free-text diabetes, polycystic ovarian syndrome, impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose), diabetic annual cycle of care (DACC), glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) > 6.5%, and prescription (metformin, other diabetes medications). Via SQL query, cases were identified in EMD of five Illawarra and Southern Practice Network practices (30,007 active patients; from 2 years to January 2015). Patient-based Supplementary Analysis of Nominated Data (SAND) sub-studies from BEACH investigating diabetes prevalence (1172 GPs; 35,162 patients; November 2012 to February 2015) were comparison data. SAND results were adjusted for number of GP encounters per year, per patient, and then age-sex standardised to match age-sex distribution of EMD patients. Cluster-adjusted 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for both datasets. RESULTS:: EMD diabetes prevalence (T1 and/or T2) was 6.5% (95% CI: 4.1-8.9). Following age-sex standardisation, SAND prevalence, not significantly different, was 6.7% (95% CI: 6.3-7.1). Extracting only coded diagnosis missed 13.0% of probable cases, subsequently identified through the presence of metformin/other diabetes medications (*without other indicator variables) (6.1%), free-text diabetes label (3.8%), HbA1c result* (1.6%), DACC* (1.3%), and diabetes medications* (0.2%). DISCUSSION:: While complex, proxy variables can improve usefulness of EMD for research. Without their consideration, EMD results should be interpreted with caution. CONCLUSION:: Enforceable, transparent data linkages in EMRs would resolve many problems with identification of diagnoses. Ongoing data quality improvement remains essential.

The prevalence of diagnosed chronic conditions and multimorbidity in Australia: A method for estimating population prevalence from general practice patient encounter data.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of common chronic conditions and multimorbidity among patients at GP encounters and among people in the Australian population. To assess the extent to which use of each individual patient's GP attendance over the previous year, instead of the average for their age-sex group, affects the precision of national population prevalence estimates of diagnosed chronic conditions. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A sub-study (between November 2012 and March 2016) of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program, a continuous national study of GP activity. Each of 1,449 GPs provided data for about 30 consecutive patients (total 43,501) indicating for each, number of GP attendances in previous year and all diagnosed chronic conditions, using their knowledge of the patient, patient self-report, and patient's health record. RESULTS: Hypertension (26.5%) was the most prevalent diagnosed chronic condition among patients surveyed, followed by osteoarthritis (22.7%), hyperlipidaemia (16.6%), depression (16.3%), anxiety (11.9%), gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD) (11.3%), chronic back pain (9.7%) and Type 2 diabetes (9.6%). After adjustment, we estimated population prevalence of hypertension as 12.4%, 9.5% osteoarthritis, 8.2% hyperlipidaemia, 8.0% depression, 5.8% anxiety and 5.2% asthma. Estimates were significantly lower than those derived using the previous method. About half (51.6%) the patients at GP encounters had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and over one third (37.4%) had three or more. Population estimates were: 25.7% had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and 15.8% had three or more. CONCLUSIONS: Of the three approaches we have tested to date, this study provides the most accurate method for estimation of population prevalence of chronic conditions using the GP as an expert interviewer, by adjusting for each patient's reported attendance.

A valuable approach to the use of electronic medical data in primary care research: Panning for gold.

BACKGROUND: Electronic medical data (EMD) from electronic health records of general practice computer systems have enormous research potential, yet many variables are unreliable. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare selected data variables from general practice EMD with a reliable, representative national dataset (Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH)) in order to validate their use for primary care research. METHOD: EMD variables were compared with encounter data from the nationally representative BEACH program using χ2 tests and robust 95% confidence intervals to test their validity (measure what they reportedly measure). The variables focused on for this study were patient age, sex, smoking status and medications prescribed at the visit. RESULTS: The EMD sample from six general practices in the Illawarra region of New South Wales, Australia, yielded data on 196,515 patient encounters. Details of 90,553 encounters were recorded in the 2013 BEACH dataset from 924 general practitioners. No significant differences in patient age ( p = 0.36) or sex ( p = 0.39) were found. EMD had a lower rate of current smokers and higher average scripts per visit, but similar prescribing distribution patterns. CONCLUSION: Validating EMD variables offers avenues for improving primary care delivery and measuring outcomes of care to inform clinical practice and health policy.

Management of chronic heart failure in general practice in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure is a common clinical syndrome associated with high healthcare system use. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the management of chronic heart failure in Australian general practice. METHODS: Data from the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program were used to determine the prevalence of chronic heart failure, use of natriuretic peptide testing, prescribing patterns, hospitalisation rates and referrals to community-based heart failure management programs in three study periods between 2010 and 2015. RESULTS: Data on 8989 patients from 308 general practitioners were analysed. Of these patients, 324 had chronic heart failure (prevalence 3.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.1-4.2), 44% (95% CI: 34.5-53.6) of whom had been hospitalised for the condition. The mean number of prescribed heart failure medication agents was 2.26 (95% CI: 2.13-2.39) per patient. Discharge under community heart failure programs was not routine. DISCUSSION: Chronic heart failure is a significant burden in general practice. Strategies to optimise management and avoid hospitalisation, where possible, are needed.

General practice antibiotic prescribing for management of otitis media in children.

Otitis media (OM) is one of the most common infections in children. The cause can be viral, but is most often bacterial. It remains one of the most common reasons for antibiotic prescribing for children. Many episodes of acute OM are self-limiting and resolve without treatment, but antibiotics are often prescribed because these infections can develop into serious, sometimes life-threatening complications.

Estimating non-billable time in Australian general practice.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the time that general practitioners spend on patient care that is not claimable from Medicare (non-billable) and the monetary value of this work were it claimable, and to identify variables independently associated with non-billable time. DESIGN: Prospective, cross-sectional survey, April 2012 - March 2014. SETTING: Australian general practice; a substudy of the national Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH) program. PARTICIPANTS: 1935 randomly sampled GPs (77.4% participation rate) from across Australia provided filled questionnaires on 66 458 patient encounters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Non-billable time spent on patient care since patient's previous consultation; duration of and reasons for non-billable time; estimate of its monetary value were it claimable from Medicare; variables associated with non-billable time. RESULTS: 69.5% of GPs reported non-billable care outside patient visits; 8019 patient encounters (12.1%) were associated with an occasion of non-billable time. Mean time spent per occasion was 10.1 min (range, 1-240 min). Reasons for non-billable time included arranging tests and referrals, consulting specialists or allied health professionals, medication renewals, and advice and education, and encompassed all International Classification of Primary Care Version 2 chapters. The notional average annual value per GP of this work was $10 525.95 (level A rebate) to $23 008.05 (level B). Non-billable time was independently associated with female GPs, younger GPs (under 55 years), female patients, patients aged 65 years or more, and one or more chronic problems being managed at the recorded encounter. CONCLUSION: Most GPs spend a significant amount of unpaid time on patient care between consultations, an inherent problem of the fee-for-service system. This work should inform discussions of future funding models.

The prevalence of complex multimorbidity in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To measure prevalence of multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity in the Australian population from a nationally representative prospective study and to identify the most prevalent patterns of chronic conditions and body systems affected. METHODS: A sub-study of the nationally representative BEACH program, using a random sample of 8,707 patients at encounters with 290 general practitioners. All diagnosed chronic conditions were recorded for each patient. Multimorbidity was defined as co-occurrence of 2+ chronic conditions, while complex multimorbidity was defined as 3+ body systems each affected by at least one chronic condition. RESULTS: We estimated: 47.4% of patients at GP encounters and one-third (32.6%) of the population had multimorbidity; and 27.4% of patients at GP encounters and 17.0% of the Australian population had complex multimorbidity. The most prevalent combination pattern of three conditions was hypertension+hyperlipidaemia+ osteoarthritis (5.5% of patient at encounters and 3.3% of the population). Most prevalent combination of three body systems affected was circulatory+musculoskeletal+endocrine / nutritional/metabolic systems (11.1% of patients at encounters and 7.0% of the population). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: A significant proportion of Australians have not only multimorbidity, but complex multimorbidity. To meet the challenge posed by complex multimorbidity, the single disease focus of our healthcare system needs to be re-evaluated.

Management of childhood asthma in general practice.

BACKGROUND: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are recommended for children with moderate or severe persistent asthma. The aims of this paper were to determine changes in childhood asthma management rates between 2004-14, and to examine current medication use and level of control in children attending general practice. METHODS: National BEACH data were used to investigate childhood (<15 years) asthma management rate. Prevalence, medication use and asthma control (Global Initiative for Asthma guidelines) were recorded for a subset of children. RESULTS: The management rate did not change over time. Prevalence was 13.7%. ICS were taken by 42.8% of children. Asthma was well controlled for 51.8%, partly controlled for 30.4% and uncontrolled for 17.9% of children. This study highlights the need to monitor appropriate medication use, particularly ICS/long-acting ß-agonist use, for asthma control in children.